Sunday, April 29, 2012

Meeting of the Minds: NBA Playoffs - East

If you missed the West, get at it.  The East “preview” transpires below.

(1) Chicago Bulls v. (8) Philadelphia 76ers
(2) Miami Heat v. (7) New York Knicks
(3) Indiana Pacers v. (6) Orlando Magic
(4) Atlanta Hawks v. (5) Boston Celtics

Eric W:  Edward, hello.  Again.  We generally agreed on most things out West.  This upsets me deeply, but great minds, right?

It is your opinion that the West is arguably weaker than the East.  I don’t think the East is even close to the West.  The West is much better than the East.  That being said, the NBA champion may very well come out of the East.  But, if I were a betting man, and I think we’ve established that I am, I would bet this year’s champion will come out of the West.  Yes, I know the Miami Heat are an Eastern team.  And yes, I do hate Lebron James and Chris Bosh.

The team with the best record in the league could be in some serious trouble.  The Bulls, or Really-The-Only-Team-That-Could-Beat-The-Heat, as they are known around my apartment, just lost Derrick Rose for the remainder of the season.  (Sadly, this also means no 2012 Olympics for Derrick, either).  I still don’t think it affects the outcome of their first series.  The Bulls did play well without Rose in the regular season, but with D-Rose (RIP) out, can the Bulls still make some noise deep into the Playoffs?

The Heat are so much fun to hate.  It’s almost unhealthy.  But, damn, are they good.  The Knicks have a shot to stifle them, especially with that MSG crowd.  But after a deflating defeat in Game 1 in Miami and the loss of Iman Shumpert (RIP), it might not happen after all.  I want the Knicks to win more than any man should, but I have my doubts.  What say you, Ed?

The Magic are boring.  The Hawks are bland.  The Celtics are old.  The Pacers are a three-seed, and that’s not a typo.  The 76er’s went full Louganis after the All-Star break and if it weren’t for the miserable Bucks pooping their collective pants, they could easily be sitting at home.  Of these four I just mentioned, who has a legitimate shot to go deeper than the second round?  Hint: There is a wrong answer.

Yes, I like money and I love the Grizzlies, but I would much rather watch the Heat lose than see the Grizz succeed.  

Ed K: I stand by my comment about the East, before the Rose injury of course. The Bulls, Heat and Celtics all are (were) legit threats to win it all and the Knicks are as dangerous as a 7 seed comes. But I digress because Rose just shattered like a piece of glass with a thousand cracks already. (Moment of silence). The injury makes the Heat the clear favorites in the East. Bad times all around.

Let’s get round one over with. I love me some Knicks (other than Amare), and would like nothing more than the Heat to lose in round one. I’m still above picking that. Let’s just painfully accept the Heat aren’t losing until the conference finals at the earliest. The Pacers are a player and a year or two away from being able to make more than a murmur. The Hawks aren’t beating anyone without Big Al. And the Magic need to just go away.

The Bulls - Celtics in round two will be a low scoring bloodbath, but the Bulls aren’t winning a meaningful playoff series without Rose. Please be man enough to admit this. Boston with Rondo - Allen - Pierce - Garnett are the second best team in the East.

You wanted disagreements, well let’s talk about whether the Bulls are in fact the only team that can beat the Heat. I completely disagree. Even before the Rose injury, I was contemplating picking a Celtics over Bulls upset and think the Celtics will give the Heat all they can handle...and possibly more. They are peaking at the right time, have the mentality to make Lebron cry and actually believe they can win. Yes, I believe in the Celts and yes I’ll say it....anything is possible (INSANE KEVIN GARNETT YELLING VOICE).

So assuming you see enough of the light to know a Celtics - Heat Eastern Conference Finals matchup is coming, do you think I’m crazy thinking the Celtics can win?


EW:  Short answer: Yes, you are insane.

Longer answer: While I agree that the Celtics are the only team left with a shot to beat Miami, I still don’t think it’s possible.  And trust me, that’s a painful sentence to write This is Miami’s conference to lose at this point. (Quick pause while I repeatedly punch myself in the face).

(Okay, I’m back.)  

The Knicks, as you say, are indeed a dangerous seven seed.  Or they were.  No Shumpert hurts them defensively in ways that I don’t think they can overcome.  The historic blowout in Game 1 of this series does not help the Knicks’ confidence either.  I refuse to call it a sweep for two reasons: (1) The MSG crowd and (2) Carmelo Anthony.  I don’t have high hopes anymore that the Knicks can assassinate the Heat title hopes in Round 1, but I will say that this series is not over.  Not quite yet at least.  Final note on this series: If Lebron James flops one more time I might lose my mind.  He’s embarrassing himself and the entire NBA.

Back to the Aging Celtics.  You first need to realize that everything Simmons writes about the Celtics is his unapologetic biased opinion, not fact. The Celtics complete lack of front court depth is staggering.  Jermaine O’Neal, RIP.  Chris Wilcox, RIP.  Brandon Bass, Kevin Garnett and Greg Steimsma.  Those are the big men I can think of off the top of my head.  There might be one more person taller than 6’9” but I’m not going to waste my time looking it up.  That isn’t exactly ideal for a deep playoff run after this gauntlet of a shortened regular season.  Also, Ray Allen is still hurt.

I will say in your defense that Rajon Rondo can and will absolutely eat Mario Chalmers alive.  Avery Bradley is capable of locking down Dwyane Wade.  KG will make Chris Bosh cry.  Paul Pierce is and always will be The Truth.  I just don’t know if the Celtics have what it takes anymore to outlast and out-will the likes of the Heat. Believe me, I hope you’re right, but I suspect that you aren’t.

The Magic-Pacers series is laughable.  I watched a decent portion of the second half of Game 1 in this series and thought for sure down the stretch the Pacers were well on their way to winning and then the craziest thing happened, they lost.  I’m not even quite sure how it happened.  The Pacers do lack a go-to Alpha Dog.  That is for sure.  You’re right, they probably are still a year or two out from making any real ruckus in the Eastern Conference.

As for my Eastern Predictions:

Largest Difference In Free-Throws For and Free-Throws Against:  Miami Heat.

Least Successful Over-Paid Two Guard:  Joe Johnson, Atlanta Hawks.

Most Tears Shed:  Chris Bosh, Miami Heat

Most Bitter About Derrick Rose’s Unfortunate ACL Tear:  Michael Wilbon, ESPN via South Side, Chicago.

First Round:
Bulls over 76ers in 5.  I think Philly just isn’t good.
Heat over Knicks in 5.  I hate it as much as you do.
Pacers over Magic in 7.  This is a coin flip.  This series is wack.
Celtics over Hawks in 7.  Closer than people think.

Second Round:
Celtics over Bulls in 6.  No Rose and a field day for Rondo.
Heat over Pacers in 4.  Bloodbath.

East Finals:
Heat over Celtics in 5.  KG’s intensity steals a game and Bosh’s soul.

Finals:
Heat over the Grizzlies in 6.  I hate myself.

EK: Look, lots of NBA players flop. But he is the biggest physical freak in the game and that makes his flops more obvious and embarrassing. Get up like a man and get in the face of a guy when you receive a hard foul, don’t embellish and roll around on the floor. Just another thing to hate about Lebron. His “Princess” title has never been more appropriate.

You confuse me. You make a small case for the Knicks, then pick them to lose in 5. I think the Heat will win for sure but think the series could go 6 or even 7. The Heat had a +22 FT advantage, Melo shot 20% and the Knicks had 24 turnovers. I don’t see any of those happening again, let alone all in one game. Just so you know I give the Knicks less of a chance you do yet I just made a stronger case and have them winning one more game. Let’s just move on before I pick them to win the series.

I am not drinking the William Simmons Kool-Aid. I just am calling it like I see it. Your points about the aging Celtics are well taken. But do these things really matter against the Heat? The Heat bench is worse than last year, especially on the front line. So the weakness that concerns you the most, might be a non-factor. Avery Bradley adds another dimension and I trust Doc Rivers over Spoelstra, if only by a little bit. One more run for the Boston Three Party (always enjoyed that one)...I think so.

Shots of Derrick Rose Per Playoff Game: Over/Under - 25

Most ill-advised jump shots: Josh Smith

What in the World Happens if He Plays?: Jeremy Lin

Worst Flopper: Lebron James

Best Flopper: Vlade Divac (Grandfathered In)

First Round:
Bulls over 76ers in 6.  Depends on how Bulls react mentally.
Heat over Knicks in 6. You made me do this.
Pacers over Magic in 7. Anything could happen in this series and I wouldn’t be shocked.
Celtics over Hawks in 5.  No Big Al, no chance.

Second Round:
Celtics over Bulls in 6.  RIP Derrick Rose.
Heat over Pacers in 5.  Horrible matchup for Pacers.

East Finals:
Celtics over Heat in 7.  That Just Happened.

NBA Finals:
Thunder over Celtics in 6. Thunder Up.

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